25/01/2017 Euphrates Shield (War report)

Sultan Murat Brigade in Norther Syria (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nvck8xXH5kM)

Despite the Euphrates Shield being a small operation in this relatively sparsely populated area in Northern Syria, it is of enormous importance for the Turkish government for it to succeed swiftly and smoothly noticing the tense political situation at home and the upcoming referendum that would decide if Turkey continues as a parliamentary system or a presidential one which could officially grant the current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan more executive powers.

In the meantime, the Turkish Armed Forces were sent into Syria, for which reason? Well, noticing the continuously flipflopping of the Turkish government we will never know, after all, the Turkish president even said once:"In my estimation, nearly 1 million people have died in Syria. These deaths are still continuing without exception for children, women, and men. Where is the United Nations? What is it doing? Is it in Iraq? No. We preached patience but could not endure in the end and had to enter Syria together with the Free Syrian Army [FSA],”

And he immediately reversed his position when he noticed that there are still translators around, and came up with: "The aim of the Euphrates Shield Operation is no country or person but only terror organizations. No one should doubt this issue that we have uttered over and over, and no one should comment on it in another fashion or try to [misrepresent its meaning],"

So currently, according to the Turkish government officials, the mission is meant to destroy all the organizations on Turkey's terrorist list, which include ISIS and PKK (PYD/SDF). To fast forward a bit, the Turkish Armed Forces alongside several rebel factions managed to conquer a part of SDF held territory near Manbij until they were stopped by US Special Forces, reached the outskirts of ISIS-controlled Al-Bab and successfully prevented the YPG linking the cantons. However, public opinion inside Turkey becomes more and more hostile towards the war with every casualty, something that both the Turkish government and ISIS understand, yet a more importing thing to think about would be how the situation currently is within the Turkish Armed Forces.

MORALE 

For almost a decade the Turkish Armed Forces have been publicly shamed, through trials like the Balyoz one in which several high-ranking officers who once were the childhood heroes of many friends of me were thrown into jail with falsified evidence (back then during the Gülen-AKP alliance) or through television series and films indoctrinating the masses with the subtle message that the army is anti-Islamic (see for example Reis, a film about Erdogan).

Alongside that, it has become a total chaotic mess after the failed coup attempt, historical and prestigious institutions have been closed down and the officer corps has been purged, so drastically that even the soldiers currently fighting on the front lines fail to appear at court. According to one discharged officer who did his story to a Belgian journalist in a well-respected magazine Knack it has been currently replaced with pro-Russian Eurasianist Kemalists who are aligned to Doğu Perinçek (who on his part has close relations to Alexander Dugin) and to add the cherry on the cake ISIS brought out a horrific video in which they burned 2 soldiers alive, something the government denied ever happened or in their words 'are still researching the situation'.

It is then no surprise that around 50 professional soldiers have submitted their resignations since the start of this year according to nationalist journalist Ahmet Takan, who also claimed that there might be elements sympathetic towards ISIS inside the rebel factions fighting alongside the Turkish Armed Forces.

Which explains that even a NATO army has problems regarding this somewhat small scaled operation, it is not 'the Turkish army' but a hugely damaged and beheaded army led by a government has no idea what it is doing and is more concerned about consolidating its power.

Manbij 

Yet the reality of a damaged army and the situation on the ground doesn't stop the Turkish government continuing it's already disastrous policies, instead, they already started talking about taking a SDF stronghold Manbij (East of Al-Bab) as part of destroying the PKK in Syria.

"But the Arabs who run Manbij are adherents of the YPG’s ideology, making them indistinguishable in Turkey’s eyes — and in the eyes of local residents — from the Kurdish force, according to Aaron Stein of the Washington-based Atlantic Council. The YPG-backed Arab force in Manbij has already fought battles with ­Turkish-backed Arab rebels in the nearby countryside, and Turkey is threatening to launch an offensive to take over the town. 

At a recent ceremony for 250 Arab recruits who had just completed training with the U.S. military near Manbij, the newly minted soldiers were told they would be heading not to the Raqqa front lines but to Aleppo, to confront the rebels backed by Turkey, a NATO ally of the United States. As U.S. Special Operations troops looked on, Abu Amjad al-Adnan, commander of the Manbij recruits, rallied the soldiers to take the fight to the forces backed by “terrorist Turkey.” 

US expanding major base at Til Beder 35 km NW of Haska w airstrip & accomodation for 5000 troops. 800 troops there now.

Noticing that the fight against ISIS is already going pretty slow, you might start asking yourself even if the TAF will ever be able to defeat the PYD while making sure that their losses are minimal. ISIS in comparison is still a state fighting several enemies (PYD+SAA+FSA+Iraqi forces) whereas the PYD only has to fight ISIS meaning that they have far more manpower at their disposal to fight the TAF, not only that but they also have built up their international image up gaining a lot of sympathy around the globe and you could pretty sure imagine that the Russian air force, and especially the American airforce are not looking forward to attacking the PYD in order to gain Turkey's favor, making the TAF even more vulnerable against the PYD.

Take with it the assumption that most people support the PYD, or at least that's what I assume noticing that many ethnic Kurds from Syria are actually refugees from Turkey who fled the 1980 coup d'état and you'll find the TAF facing a huge army, armed to the teeth, battle hardened with enough manpower at their disposal to deliver heavy losses to the TAF which will not only threaten the political situation in Turkey but also it's diplomatic ties with the USA, as we speak the USA is currently fighting alongside the forces linked to the PKK in Syria and have made it clear with their latest military basis that they have chosen the SDF/YPG over Turkey's interests.

In the meantime, Turkish-backed rebels are getting eaten up by radical factions near Idlib and their own auxiliaries who should run the areas where Turkish soldiers gave their sweat and blood for have already shown not to be able to run their own state.