Today marks the second day that President Donald Trump and his Administration lead the executive branch of the US government. Regarding Turkey, many predictions have been given about Turco-US relations and, I'm confident, many more will follow. Since this relationship is marked by war and conflict in the Middle East, I thought that it might be helpful to provide some insights on the new Secretary of Defense, Mattis, so that you are more equipped when entering a discussion about Turco-US (military) relations. Therefore, I have watched an interview (2015) between SoD Mattis and the leading interview of the Hoover Institution (Stanford University) Peter Robinson. The following will be four interesting remarks on that interview.
Around 5m00:
SoD Mattis said that political decision-makers should clearly state the political objectives and ask themselves whether it is achievable before they engage into military conflict. I think that this will lead to a reevaluation of Turco-US ties, in which the US will ultimately see that Turkey is too valuable a partner. This does not mean that the US will give Turkey and its current Administration a carte blanche, but I predict that the US will work together with Turkey and push forward to reform together.
Around 8m00:
SoD Mattis said that if the civilians do not clarify clear objectives, the professionals (i.e. the armed forces) cannot succeed. I subscribe to this view entirely and hope that the Erdogan Administration will come up with more clearly stated political goals and benefits in favor of entering Syria militarily. (This could also, for example, be to enhance NATO cooperation)
Around a point that I forgot to write down the time:
SoD Mattis said during his 2015 interview that the Generals and Admirals must (!!) make themselves heard, but not obeyed. This principle goes directly into the larger part of 20th century Turkish politics and I hope that this principle of SoD Mattis will be stressed during talks between Turkish and US military officials.
Around 18m00:
"The engine for our national security has always been our economy." If Turkey is to improve the state of its national security, then Turkey has to improve its economy. With investors like the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Japense investors announcing new investments into Turkey, I'm confident that the Turkish economy will continue to grow. However, this continuation of new investments from the outside means that the current (economic) turmoil is not so much an economic issue as it is (relatively) more a political one. The Erdogan Administration must stop denouncing decades-past established economic laws. This only scares investors away and hurts the economy.
Around 33m15:
Regarding the religion of Islam, then General (Ret.) and now SoD Mattis, stated that the religion itself is not a problem (although not in so many words). He gave the example of several Middle Eastern heads-of-government/state who pursued a political project and arrangement in which the state is ruled by human reasoning and not by divine rule/law/thought. This arrangement does not mean that religion has no place in society. In the contrary, religion can absolutely can play a role in society, however, it should not guide politics.
That was it. I predict that SoD Mattis will improve Turco-US ties and at the same time stress the importance of healthy civil-military and state-military relations with his Turkish counterparts.
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